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Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet

Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots.
A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC).
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:

Is Bitcoin money?

No.
Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.

BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in

Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
See here
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.

Currencies are based on trust

Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.

BTC is not gold

Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.

BTC is really risky

One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:

Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient

Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
submitted by VodkaHaze to badeconomics [link] [comments]

The Reddit Bake-Off, Reddit-wide tokenization, and where NANO fits in the future of digital exchange.

I first learned about Bitcoin from a person I met at an interview in late 2017. My primary interest was Bitcoin, but at the time I saw how much profit early Ethereum adopters yielded and I envied them for finding such a successful project in its early stages. My first investment in cryptocurrency was Litecoin. I was attracted to the fact that, although it was essentially the same as Bitcoin, it was faster and slightly less expensive. I dove in and I got rekt.
As time went on I began to do research on different coins. I found Binance and started exploring alts. I'd look at the Binance chart, pick a coin, Google it, read their whitepaper (since I didn't understand the code, eventually I just judged a whitepaper by its aesthetic), and ultimately I would end up on their subreddit. That's how I found CryptoCurrency.
At some point in my journey, a new wave of confidence entered the market. People started talking in the Daily about a new coin that appeared on some weird exchange whose named I had never heard. They said it was instant and free and that it was the absolute epitome of what Bitcoin was meant to be.
Countless users suggested this coin would absorb the entire market cap of Bitcoin.
Its name was strange, RaiBlocks (XRB). I had bought in around $20 at the time the price went from $0-38 in a couple of weeks. Everyone was enthusiastic about the bull run, but it was the technology and its potential for worldwide application that people were excited about most.
Welp, some bad press and a couple of years later and we are now in the depths of obscurity and any mention of NANO in the Daily on CryptoCurrency, the same sub that birthed its popularity in the first place, is chastised. I sadly watched as NANO lost its clout and with it its price. Eventually, BrainBlocks died, which was my favorite project of all, and I exited completely. I even removed NANO from my watchlists because I knew if I saw it I would buy back in.
NANO fell off my radar entirely for about 4 months while I dove head first into DeFi. However, last night I saw the charts looking favorable for a breakout, so I re-entered. Then today as Bitcoin pumped and every other alt dumped, NANO miraculously jumped. I figured the trading bots still oddly tie NANO to Bitcoin and after seeing NANO as the only successful coin in a sea of red, I came back. I also thought maybe the developers knew something we didn't, and the price was increasing before something big was about to happen, but that's just wishful thinking.
Right now, the most exciting corner of the cryptocurrency space is far and away the fact that Reddit is now heavily involved in the future of cryptocurrency integration:
  1. The Great Reddit Scaling Bake-Off is a competition hosted by Reddit to help scale Ethereum well enough to efficiently manage the complete tokenization of Reddit.
  2. As an experiment, Reddit has begun given tokens to posters/commenters at two subreddits for upvoted content: Moons and Bricks at CryptoCurrency and FortNiteBR, respectively.
A user was even able to bridge Moons and Bricks to equivalent tokens on the xDai Network (xMOON and xBRICK), and are literally tradable. For example, I earned 425 moons last month and I bridged them to xMOON and traded them for ETH on Honeyswap. I earned ERC-20 tokens from Reddit, bridged them to another network, and sold them. This, ladies and gentlemen, is not only the beginning of the tokenization of Reddit. This is going to be the beginning of tokenization of everything.
NANO is faster and feeless. An infinite number of blockchains can be created on the block lattice. A community member even generated a Moons to NANO converter, right?
My question is: Is it possible for NANO to bridge ERC-20 and ERC-677 tokens from the Ethereum network to NANO sidechain equivalents. Fore example, NANOETH, NANOLINK, etc.? Why can't NANO participate in the Bake-Off and develop a protocol that bridges NANO and other tokens via sidechains? Is it possible to create a token for every single subreddit and have them run simultaneosly the NANO network? Why isn't NANO in the discussion for this and why haven't we entered the Bake-Off? Is this not the best use case for NANO and the best place to implement the protocol?
To be quite honest, I am back because I think NANO will succeed in some way and I imagine the developers have a plan for marketing with the next hype wave in cryptocurrency. However, if that is not the case, then this project is missing a serious opportunity to become a part of perhaps the single most important incoming disruptor in the cryptocurrency space and economics, err, soon-to-be tokenomics of our society.
People once thought this coin would absorb the entire market cap of Bitcoin, but it's been 3 years and other projects have gained traction and now the spotlight is on Ethereum. Yes, there will never be another coin as fast or as free as NANO, but there needs to actually be use for it for it to become valuable and have a place in the future.
Thanks for reading!
tl;dr - Reddit is tokenizing all subreddits and is actively hosting a competition in order to try to find the solution to Ethereum scaling, called the Bake-Off. I want to know if it is possible for NANO to participate in the Reddit Bake-Off and use its protocol to tokenize Reddit.
submitted by fatal_music to nanocurrency [link] [comments]

Axion - A Global Currency, Built To Serve The People

What is Axion? Per Axion's website:

AXION is the answer to our global financial markets that are on the brink of disaster.
The original solution to this impending collapse was Bitcoin, a decentralized peer-to-peer currency. However, since its inception, certain aspects of Bitcoin, such as lack of speed and high fees, have shifted Bitcoin into more of a store-of-value than a currency. Axion is the currency to address that.
With a high-interest time-locked savings account, Participants in the Axion Network are rewarded daily.

How is AXION distributed?

Anyone holding Hex2T (pre-sale) tokens will receive AXION at a rate of 1:1

Hex holders will also receive AXION 1:1, limited at 10M AXION tokens. Hex holders will also be auto-locked for a year, with 2% releasing weekly. More details can be found in the whitepaper. If Hex holders do not claim their AXION tokens, they will become available for purchase in the Daily Auction every week.

The Daily Auction

Putting Tokens and Value into your pocket.

To get Axion, it needs to be claimed by Hex & Hex2T holders, the longer they wait to claim, the more penalties they face. About 2% of their total per week. This 2% is added into a daily auction pool where people can bid using ETH on the Axion tokens within it. If you bid 10% of the ETH on that day, you get 10% of the pool rewards.
80% of the ETH paid in the auction is then used to hyperdrive both the Axion token and the stakers earnings. First, the ETH is used to purchase the tokens, boosting the token price, and then those tokens are distributed to stakers, creating a very strong positive feedback loop.

Axion Vision

Axion is on the path to becoming the ideal global currency.

For the first time in history, inflation is increasing the purchasing power of the people within the network. Axion has partnerships lined up to be integrated in online and in-person payment solutions, where you can pay for nearly everything in your every-day life using Axion. The merchants can accept FIAT (converted from Axion), or Axion itself. This is a global movement.

Axion: Built to Scale

500 Billion Initial Total Supply
1:1 Freeclaim ratio for Hex2T and Hex holders
80% of ETH Earned in auctions is used to buy back tokens
8% Annual inflation that goes Directly to stakers
100% of all purchased tokens Are distributed to stakers
No Auto-Stake For hex2t holders 100% autostake for hex holders

How to buy:

**Video Tutorials:**Metamask Install – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htyEeKNHX5ABuy/Sell Axion (HEX2T) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYZBOkHIM5k
How Do I Buy Axion (HEX2T)?
Step One: Purchase Ethereum from your exchange of choice (Coinbase, Binance, etc). You can also purchase Ethereum through Metamask and have it sent directly to your Metamask wallet (More details on this in Step Three). If buying through Coinbase, you’ll have the option to use a linked bank account or a debit card. Funds purchased via linked bank account will have a hold period while the bank transaction clears, funds purchased via debit card will be available for use instantly.
Step Two: Install the Metamask desktop browser extension and set up your Ethereum Wallet. You may also install the Metamask app on your Android smartphone and follow the same set up process in the linked video. (Apologies iOS users, the iOS Metamask app has restrictions that disable necessary features, you’ll have to use the desktop browser extension)
Step Three: Once you have your Metamask wallet set up and your seed words properly saved, it’s time to deposit Ethereum to your wallet.
– If you’ve purchased Ethereum on an exchange such as Coinbase or Binance, you’ll have to copy your wallet address from Metamask and withdraw the Ethereum from the exchange to your Metamask wallet address that you just copied. Be sure to check the wallet address multiple times before sending as transactions can not be reversed.
– If you’d like to purchase Ethereum directly through Metamask, you can do so using the Wyre fiat gateway that is integrated into Metamask.
Step Four: Now that you have Ethereum in your Metamask wallet, you can head over to our listing on the Uniswap Exchange to purchase Axion (HEX2T). We recommend using Fast GAS to speed up your transactions. You may also have to click on the gear icon in the top right on Uniswap to adjust your slippage limit when buying larger amounts.
– If using the Metamask app on Android, you’ll have to access the in-app browser through the menu (three bars top left of app) and paste the provided link.
– You will see a “From” input that should have ETH as the selected currency pointing to a “To (estimated)” output that should have HEX2T as the selected currency. The “From” input is the amount of Ethereum you will be spending and the “To (estimated)” output is the amount of HEX2T that you will receive for that amount of Ethereum.
– Once you enter the amount of Ethereum you’d like to spend, the button at the bottom of the page should say “Approve”. This “Approve” function allows the exchange to access Ethereum in your wallet, which is necessary to complete this transaction. You’ll click the “Approve” button and the exchange will send a transaction to your wallet, which you will have to confirm. Wait for that Approve transaction to clear and once it does the button should change from “Approve” to “Swap”.
– Now that you’ve given the exchange permission to use the Ethereum in your wallet, you can click the “Swap” button. This will send another transaction to your wallet that you’ll have to confirm. Once that transaction clears, you’ll have successfully purchased HEX2T with Ethereum!
Side Note: If you can’t see the HEX2T that you’ve purchased in your Metamask wallet’s Asset list, you’ll have to add the token to your Asset list. At the bottom of the Asset list you will see an “Add Token” button, click on that and you’ll see a “Search” and a “Custom Token” tab. Click on the “Custom Token” tab and paste the following address (0xed1199093b1abd07a368dd1c0cdc77d8517ba2a0) into the “Custom Token Address” field, the rest of the info should auto-fill. Then click the “Next” button in the bottom right, and it should display your HEX2T balance, click the “Add Tokens” button and you should now see your HEX2T in your Asset list.
**How Do I Sell Axion (HEX2T)?**To sell Axion (HEX2T), you essentially do the inverse of what you did to purchase it.Step One: Head over to Uniswap Exchange and click on ETH in the “From” input, a drop down list will appear and you’ll select HEX2T. In the “To (estimated)” output, click on “Select a Token” and select ETH. To clarify, if you want to sell, HEX2T should be on top, ETH should be on bottom.
Step Two: Enter the amount of HEX2T you’d like to sell in the “From” input, the button at the bottom of the page should say “Approve”. This “Approve” function allows the exchange to access HEX2T in your wallet, which is necessary to complete this transaction. You’ll click the “Approve” button and the exchange will send a transaction to your wallet, which you will have to confirm. Wait for that Approve transaction to clear and once it does the button should change from “Approve” to “Swap”.
– Now that you’ve given the exchange permission to use the HEX2T in your wallet, you can click the “Swap” button. This will send another transaction to your wallet that you’ll have to confirm. Once that transaction clears, you’ll have successfully sold HEX2T for Ethereum!
If at any point you feel that you need help in this process, please do not hesitate to join our fast growing Discord or Telegram. Once you’re in either of those communities you’ll be able to ask an admin or moderator for assistance.

Legal

Their legal proposal is 95% complete, per their Discord announcement - and most likely be finished in the coming days.

Charts:

http://chartex.pro?symbol=UNISWAP:HEX2T/USD
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hex2t

According to the infamous Jeff K...


TLDR


Axion WHITEPAPER

submitted by kylejames87 to CryptoMoonShots [link] [comments]

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent

DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir).
Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance.
Inspiration
Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out.
A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing.
Data
Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors.
Google Search Trends
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months
\"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020
\"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months
Brokerage data
Robinhood SPY holders
\"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months
wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months
Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement
Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement
TD Ameritrade Excerpt
Media
cnbc.com Alexa rank
CNBC viewership & rankings
wallstreetbets comments / day

investing comments / day
Analysis
What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well.
However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so.
SPX daily
Rationale
Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
  • They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
  • They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
  • Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
  • This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
  • Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market.
Sentiment & Magic Crayons
As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality.
From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities.
SPY daily
Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data.
There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend.
This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level.
VIX Daily
Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so.
Putting Everything Together
Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180.
tldr; we've reached the top
EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested.
5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level
5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing.
5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts
5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play.
5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30.
5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit.
5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30.
5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again
5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p
5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend.
5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there.
5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
submitted by ASoftEngStudent to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Newcomers FAQ - Please read!

Welcome to the /Bitcoin Sticky FAQ

You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments.
It all started with the release of the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following videos for a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Some other great resources include Lopp.net, the Princeton crypto series and James D'Angelo's Bitcoin 101 Blackboard series.
Some excellent writing on Bitcoin's value proposition and future can be found at the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute.
Some Bitcoin statistics can be found here and here. Developer resources can be found here. Peer-reviewed research papers can be found here.
Potential upcoming protocol improvements and scaling resources here and here.
The number of times Bitcoin was declared dead by the media can be found here (LOL!)

Key properties of Bitcoin

Where can I buy bitcoins?

Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
Here is a listing of local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage.
Note: Bitcoins are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Preev is a useful site that that shows how much various denominations of bitcoin are worth in different currencies. Alternatively you can just Google "1 bitcoin in (your local currency)".

Securing your bitcoins

With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoins OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoins for you.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email!
2FA requires a second confirmation code to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes.
Google Auth Authy OTP Auth
Android Android N/A
iOS iOS iOS

Watch out for scams

As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. Don't trust, verify. Also as they say in our community "Not your keys, not your coins".

Where can I spend bitcoins?

Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Store Product
Gyft Gift cards for hundreds of retailers including Amazon, Target, Walmart, Starbucks, Whole Foods, CVS, Lowes, Home Depot, iTunes, Best Buy, Sears, Kohls, eBay, GameStop, etc.
Spendabit, Overstock and The Bitcoin Directory Retail shopping with millions of results
ShakePay Generate one time use Visa cards in seconds
NewEgg and Dell For all your electronics needs
Bitwa.la, Coinbills, Piixpay, Bitbill.eu, Bylls, Coins.ph, Bitrefill, LivingRoomofSatoshi, Coinsfer, and more Bill payment
Menufy, Takeaway and Thuisbezorgd NL Takeout delivered to your door
Expedia, Cheapair, Destinia, Abitsky, SkyTours, the Travel category on Gyft and 9flats For when you need to get away
Cryptostorm, Mullvad, and PIA VPN services
Namecheap, Porkbun Domain name registration
Stampnik Discounted USPS Priority, Express, First-Class mail postage
Coinmap and AirBitz are helpful to find local businesses accepting bitcoins. A good resource for UK residents is at wheretospendbitcoins.co.uk.
There are also lots of charities which accept bitcoin donations.

Merchant Resources

There are several benefits to accepting bitcoin as a payment option if you are a merchant;
If you are interested in accepting bitcoin as a payment method, there are several options available;

Can I mine bitcoin?

Mining bitcoins can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read more here. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out.
If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node using this setup guide. If you would prefer to keep it simple there are several good options. You can view the global node distribution here.

Earning bitcoins

Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoins by being paid to do a job.
Site Description
WorkingForBitcoins, Bitwage, Cryptogrind, Coinality, Bitgigs, /Jobs4Bitcoins, BitforTip, Rein Project Freelancing
Lolli Earn bitcoin when you shop online!
OpenBazaar, Purse.io, Bitify, /Bitmarket, 21 Market Marketplaces
/GirlsGoneBitcoin NSFW Adult services
A-ads, Coinzilla.io Advertising
You can also earn bitcoins by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoins for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoins.

Bitcoin-Related Projects

The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
Project Description
Lightning Network Second layer scaling
Blockstream, Rootstock and Drivechain Sidechains
Hivemind and Augur Prediction markets
Tierion and Factom Records & Titles on the blockchain
BitMarkets, DropZone, Beaver and Open Bazaar Decentralized markets
JoinMarket and Wasabi Wallet CoinJoin implementation
Coinffeine and Bisq Decentralized bitcoin exchanges
Keybase Identity & Reputation management
Abra Global P2P money transmitter network
Bitcore Open source Bitcoin javascript library

Bitcoin Units

One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
Unit Symbol Value Info
bitcoin BTC 1 bitcoin one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
millibitcoin mBTC 1,000 per bitcoin used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
bit bit 1,000,000 per bitcoin colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
satoshi sat 100,000,000 per bitcoin smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki.
Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit.
Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval.
Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
submitted by BitcoinFan7 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Q3

For Trading October 1st
Welcome to Q3
Rally Continues
PLTR Prices @ $7.25 ASAN $21.00
Today’s market was looking pretty ugly on the overnight futures reaction to the debate, but we had a deluge of positive data coming from ADP, Case Schiller, Chicago PMI, another look at Q2 GDP and mortgage applications. We moved from -200 DJIA to +100 in the last 20 minutes leading up to the open and it only got better from there. We had the Treasury Secretary from the Seeking Alpha virtual meeting talking about his conversations with Speaker Pelosi and gave some hopeful words, which added gas to the fire, and we were headed to +550 on the DJIA with the rest of the market following. When the dust settled we finished with the DJIA +329.04 (1.2%), NASDAQ +82.26 (.74%), S&P 500 +27.53 (.83%), the Russell +2.97 (.20%) and the DJ Transports the only one lower at -71.79 (.63%). Market internals were unimpressive although volume was about 30% higher but that was likely the effect of the end of the quarter. There were only 2 DJIA lower (DIS & NKE) while the biggest gainers were AXP, UNH, AMGN, GS, & HD.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members.
I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/e9UkY-d19rw
SECTORS: There wasn’t a lot of sector news, but we did have some news from DIS after the close laying off 28,000 employees at the “parks” division with full time, part time, as well as executives. The stock finished today $124.00, better than last night’s reaction but still lower by $1.40 (1.12%). Micron (MU) was sold off even though they beat top and bottom lines but sellers took control and after it traded up to $52.67 on the headline, it spent the day today selling off and closed on the lows at $46.90 -3.81 (7.51%). This is why I always try to NOT trade earnings reports. This is a prime example of being right on the numbers and having it cost you money.
Becton Dickenson reported positive results on their “antigen-based test’ and was higher, closing $233.71 +8.28 (3.67%). Moderna (MRNA) was also higher during the day with a high of $75.39 but finished $70.75 +.23 (.33%). PLL who signed a 5-year agreement with TESLA for an element used in batteries that had traded $54.50 and since closing $37 +26 has had a couple of weaker days finishing the day today $23.69 -1.69 (6.66%) but still well up from $11.00.
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL +.27, RCL +.50, NCLH +.80, AAL +.16, DAL +.12, UAL +.59, HA +.15, ALK -.04 and XTN $58.15 -.18 (.32%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.51, BGS -.04, FLO +.23, CPB +.35, CAG +.17, MDLZ +.96, KHC +.34, CALM -.22, JJSF +1.04, SAFM -.03, HRL +.38, SJM +2.51, PPC +.17, KR +.19, and PBJ $32.72 +.22 (.68%).
BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +1.33, ABBV +1.28, REGN -12.51, ISRG +19.45, GILD +1.45, MYL +.26, TEVA +.16, VRTX +1.81, BHC +.77, INCY +2.31, ICPT +.01, LABU -.23, and IBB $135.41 +.80 (.59%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.11, CGC -.15, CRON -.01, GWPH -.47, NBEV +.01, CURLF +.16, KERN -.04, and MJ $10.36 -.07 (.67%).
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -4.98, GD -.12, TXT -.68, NOC -7.90, BWXT -.96, TDY -1.73, RTX +.16, and ITA $159.79 -.07.
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.07, JWN +.29, KSS +.15, DDS +3.01, WMT WMT +3.13, TGT +1.05, TJX +1.49, RL +.63, UAA +.15, LULU +7.71, TPR -.07, CPRI +.33 and XRT $49.66 +.35 (.71%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL -.07, AMZN +17.12, AAPL +2.08, FB +1.01, NFLX +7.31, NVDA +14.12, TSLA +12.03, BABA +18.07, BIDU +5.39, CMG -11.28, CRM +4.35, BA +5.70, CAT +2.09, DIS -.91, and XLK $117.07 +1.34 (1.16%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with interest rates with GS +4.18, JPM +.87, BAC +.36, MS +1.18, C +.72, PNC +3.88, AIG +.29, TRV +.56, V +.96, and XLF $24.09 +.34 (1.42%).
OIL, $40.22 +.93, Oil was in a fairly tight range all day. After the oil sold off yesterday it had an “inside day” today, so no real hint to which way it is going out of this consolidation. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $30.03 -.01 (.03%).
GOLD $1,895.50 – 7.70, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing mid-range but down on the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. We sold the balance of the 3X silver ETF calls at $2.10.
BITCOIN: closed $10,770 -45. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.01 -.02 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Once again: some useful tips you may need for a next bullrun of during the DeFi hype

During the previous bull run, I’ve made some wrong decisions that have cost me a lot of money. With the halving just behind us, we may enter a new bull run.
Here are some tips for the next bull run. Feel free to add yours:
• ⁠never sell your whole stack
• ⁠never trade with your whole stack. not your keys not your crypto
• ⁠if you have life changing amounts, you are a gambler if you hodl everything for bigger life changing amounts (lots of people have been thinking "i should have, would have, could have" everyday for the last year+)
• ⁠scale out when the log chart goes parabolic, and your grandma and uber driver and katy perry are talking about bitcoins. the difference between short term gains & long term gains is more than losing 90% of your principle. markets don't care about your timetable
• ⁠take chunks of your profits out of crypto entirely & diversify, you can lockup a small percentage into defi and earn interest as a hedge to offset fomo
• ⁠pay your taxes (optional?) and/or save money for a rainy day in fiat
• ⁠set some low limit orders you don't think will hit on the way up and be patient
• ⁠set some high limit orders on the way down to catch any fat finger trades
• ⁠keep a few low orders on exchanges that still allow flash crashes and think of those as your reserves
• ⁠don't ever talk to people about your gains
• specify a strategy prior to the new bull run, including exit points and several levels at which you plan to sell parts of your stack
• help newbies who will be attracted by the new bull run and don’t shill your own shitcoins
submitted by XRBeast to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Instacoin UK - Last Chance (up to end of Oct) to get a free £10 worth of Bitcoin (same day) for £100 Bitcoin purchase

Instacoin UK , a popular cryptocurrency exchange, are updating their referral scheme from 1st November 2020. The referral amount will be adjusted to a £5 bonus for any purchase over £50. Currently it is a £10 bonus for any purchase of £100 or over.
Instacoin UK is a website which allows you to purchase Bitcoin with your Visa / MasterCard or via a bank transfer. They have been around a while used by lots of beermoneyuk users already.
Instacoin UK are going to honor the £10 bonus scheme for any new customer signing that sign up and purchase £100 of Bitcoin or over until the end of the month. You get the free £10 worth of Bitcoin immediately after purchase! The whole process (including receiving your £100 back in your bank account) should take less than an hour.
The Process
Sign up via my referral link.
Referral link: https://instacoin.uk/ref?code=54C9787
£10 bonus
Non-refferal link: https://instacoin.uk/
No bonus

Steps:

  1. Sign up with the referral link above
  2. Verify your account (driver's licence, passport or gov issued I.D)
  3. Click buy at the top of the dashboard and select BTC, with a purchase amount of £100
  4. Enter the Bitcoin wallet address you want the money paying to.
  5. Pay using by Visa / MasterCard or bank transfer.
  6. You're done! The £100 of BTC will reach your bitcoin wallet usually within 15 minutes or so.
  7. The £10 bonus you receive in the form of a code in your email after the £100 of BTC is sent. Click the email link, enter the code, provide your wallet address again and you'll receive your £10 of BTC for free :)

Once the £110 worth of Bitcoin is in your wallet you are free to do whatever you want with it. I sent mine to my BlockFi account for savings.
You can also get an additional £10 reward for every person you refer up to the end of the month, after this it is £5! Any referral bonuses are given to you at the end of the month).
Let me know if you have any questions.

UPDATE 24.10.20: There is some confusion about the referral amount as being £5 or £10. InstaCoin UK have confirmed That is you sign up with an exsisting customers link (like mine), and complete a £100 purchase before the end of October, you will receive £10 in free Bitcoin credited to your account.
My Referral link for the free £10: https://instacoin.uk/ref?code=54C9787
UPDATE 28.10.20:
Here is a copy of the email I have just received from InstaCoin. I can verify that the mempool is super busy at the moment:

We have received a number of support tickets regarding the delay in BTC confirmations. Rather than reply to everyone individually we would like to address this issue as a whole and give a quick explanation to all our users about why this is occuring:
Sometimes, for a variety of reasons, there will be a spike in the number of BTC transactions that are waiting to be confirmed. That will cause a delay in confirmation times, and increases the price of fees required for a transaction to be included in a block. You can see the current number of unconfirmed transactions here: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/mempool-count?timespan=1week.
Transaction fees directly influence how long you will have to wait for transactions to confirm. At InstaCoin, we broadcast all our transactions with a Regular fee. This fee is covered on our side. It is usually around 0.0001 BTC or £1. Up until the last few days, there has never been an issue with confirmation times.
With a high priority fee, it is likely that transactions will get confirmed quicker by miners. Currently, we are looking at a 0.001BTC/£10 fee to push through transactions at a normal rate. As you can imagine, this is not an expense InstaCoin can cover and we also believe our users would not want to pay this fee either.
We believe the best solution is the one we are currently employing. The delays are frustrating and we feel that frustration too but the current mempool (waiting room) is unprecedented and we will return back to normal ways soon.
The important takeaway we want our users to have from this is that, from our side, the BTC is sent out instantly to your wallet and usually this would get confirmed in a short space of time. At this moment things are taking a bit longer, but the end-point is that you will 100% receive this BTC eventually.

Also remember to complete your sign up and deposist before the end of the month to be certain of getting the free £10 in Bitcoin.
My sign up link again is: https://instacoin.uk/ref?code=54C9787
Sign up code: 54C9787
If you have any questions just let me know.
submitted by TidyCompetition to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Profit Taking Tuesday

For Trading September 9th
PROFIT TAKING CONTINUES!
TSLA BIGGEST DECLINE
Today’s market started with the news that Mr. Trump got up early in order to continue to poke the Chinese Bear (they borrowed one from Putin, the thug) on the possibility that we would ban cotton imports and possibly blacklist another of their chip makers. Probably not going to get any traction, but you have to think that as well as AAPL and TSLA have navigated the issues surrounding their business in China, it could easily be put in jeopardy at any time. So, between that item, and the fact that the “BIG 6” wasn’t quite finished working off the run that it seems Softbank got started over the last month or so, we followed the leaders lower, rallied a bit until 3:00 and then sold off to make a new low and close -632.42 (2.25%), NASDAQ -465.45 (4.11%), S&P 500 -95.12 (2.78%), the Russell -30.71 (2%), and the best performer, DJ Transports -145 (1.29%). Market internals were soft with NYSE 3:1 lower with 3:1 down volume while NASDAQ was just over 2:1 lower. The DJIA was 26:4 lower with the biggest losers CRM -89, BA-66, GS & AAPL -56, and the biggest gainer was DIS +14 DP’s.
Tomorrow we have JOLTS (job openings) and mortgage applications to contend with. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TODAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/DK2hmC0GXFk With my guest: Dennis Marlow! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/sZBKCQBEgm8
SECTORS: We started off the day with some Merger Monday action between Nikola and GM. GM taking a $2Billion stake in NKLA and NKLA planning to utilize the GM factories to build their “prospective” pickup truck. Both stocks were higher with NKLA gapping up to open $46.00 and trading as high as $54.56 and closing $50.05 +14.50 (40%), while GM opened $31.55, trading $33.33 and closing $32.38 +2.38 (7.93%). LULU posted solid earning growth and a beat on both earnings and revenues, but it just wasn’t enough as the stock which closed $349.80 -11.61 but then fell to $324 and is currently $329.50 -31.91 (8.83%). We also had a beat on both top and bottom lines at SLACK (WORK) but it too was short on guidance and “billings” and they took it out and shot it. It had closed $29.32 +.25 but fell as low as $23.27 and is now $23.85 -5.21 (18%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.85, BGS -1.89, FLO -.52, CPB -2.36, CAG -1.98, MDLZ -1.87, KHC -1.87, CALM -.03, JJSF -2.33, SAFM -1.26, HRL -.83, SJM -3.40, PPC -.23, KR -.83 and PBJ $33.06 -.95 (2.78%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -7.82, ABBV -2.24, REGN -17.31, ISRG -41.25 the biggest loser (5.61%), GILD -1.87, MYL .17, TEVA -.34, VRTX -7.89, BHC -.16, INCY -.76, ICPT -1.16, LABU -2.56, and IBB $126.10 -3.18 (2.45%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.37, CGC -.64, CRON -.15, GWPH +1.59, ACB -.88, NBEV -.10, CURLF +.01, KERN -.10, and MJ $11.31 -.80 (6.61%).
DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -5.95, GD -4.74, TXT -.67, NOC -4.03, BWXT -1.32, TDY -5.18, RTX -2.02, and ITA $162.00 -4.64 (2.78%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M -.6, JWN -.19, KSS -.15, DDS +1.11, WMT -4.77, TGT -5.03, TJX -.18, RL -.59, UAA +.31, LULU -32.41 (SEE ABOVE), TPR +.44, CPRI +.34 and XRT $50.18 -.74 (1.45%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -64.42, AMZN -161.31, AAPL -8.64, FB -12.93, NFLX -8.06, NVDA -29.58, BABA 11.89, BIDU -4.54, CRM - 13.60, CMG -15.73, BA -10.62, CAT -.49, DIS +.01, and XLK 112.51 -5.61 (4.75%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with interest rates and GS -9.84, JPM -3.97, BAC -1.19, MS -2.89, C -1.75, PNC -4.59, AIG -.91, TRV -2.57, AXP -2.67, V -5.15, and XLF $24.54 -.75 (2.97%).
OIL, $36.76 – 3.01. Oil was lower in today’s trading and drifted lower all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider buying it for a bounce. Nat Gas was - $ .19 to $2.40 and closed a gap left on the upside that occurred when we were long last month, and I am looking at UNG (NG ETF) as a proxy to get long.
GOLD $1,943.20 +8.90, sold off early but didn’t break below the $1905 area I am using as support. It turned back and rallied and closed right near the highs. I did a short update video today: https://youtu.be/KJgk-wmVJ4U I am still a bull on the metal, and we have a September bull call spread on using NEM 65/70 calls with a cost of $1.45, which closed today @ $1.91, and we also added some October 70’s at $1.65 which closed $2.08.
BITCOIN: closed $10,015 -605. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.11 -.90 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Testing the Tide | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - June 2020

We would rather be ruined than changed.
-W H Auden, The Age of Anxiety
This is my forty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $726 306
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $42 118
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $78 730
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $111 691
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $201 745
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $39 357
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $231 269
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 668
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 310
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 532
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $117 757
Secured physical gold – $18 913
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $10 479
Bitcoin – $148 990
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 841
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 553
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 484
Total portfolio value: $1 765 743 (+$8 485 or 0.5%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 42.2% (2.8% under)
Global shares – 22.0%
Emerging markets shares – 2.3%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 27.3% (2.7% under)
Total shares – 69.5% (5.5% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.7%
International bonds – 9.4%
Total bonds – 14.0% (1.0% under)
Gold – 7.7%
Bitcoin – 8.4%
Gold and alternatives – 16.2% (6.2% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
[Chart]
Comments
The overall portfolio increased slightly over the month. This has continued to move the portfolio beyond the lows seen in late March.
The modest portfolio growth of $8 000, or 0.5 per cent, maintains its value at around that achieved at the beginning of the year.
[Chart]
The limited growth this month largely reflects an increase in the value of my current equity holdings, in VAS and A200 and the Vanguard retail funds. This has outweighed a small decline in the value of Bitcoin and global shares. The value of the bond holdings also increased modestly, pushing them to their highest value since around early 2017.
[Chart]
There still appears to be an air of unreality around recent asset price increases and the broader economic context. Britain's Bank of England has on some indicators shown that the aftermath of the pandemic and lockdown represent the most challenging financial crisis in around 300 years. What is clear is that investor perceptions and fear around the coronavirus pandemic are a substantial ongoing force driving volatility in equity markets (pdf).
A somewhat optimistic view is provided here that the recovery could look more like the recovery from a natural disaster, rather than a traditional recession. Yet there are few certainties on offer. Negative oil prices, and effective offers by US equity investors to bail out Hertz creditors at no cost appear to be signs of a financial system under significant strains.
As this Reserve Bank article highlights, while some Australian households are well-placed to weather the storm ahead, the timing and severity of what lays ahead is an important unknown that will itself feed into changes in household wealth from here.
Investments this month have been exclusively in the Australian shares exchange-traded fund (VAS) using Selfwealth.* This has been to bring my actual asset allocation more closely in line with the target split between Australian and global shares.
A moving azimuth: falling spending continues
Monthly expenses on the credit card have continued their downward trajectory across the past month.
[Chart]
The rolling average of monthly credit card spending is now at its lowest point over the period of the journey. This is despite the end of lockdown, and a slow resumption of some more normal aspects of spending.
This has continued the brief period since April of the achievement of a notional and contingent kind of financial independence.
The below chart illustrates this temporary state, setting out the degree to which portfolio distributions cover estimated total expenses, measured month to month.
[Chart]
There are two sources of volatility underlying its movement. The first is the level of expenses, which can vary, and the second is the fact that it is based on financial year distributions, which are themselves volatile.
Importantly, the distributions over the last twelve months of this chart is only an estimate - and hence the next few weeks will affect the precision of this analysis across its last 12 observations.
Estimating 2019-20 financial year portfolio distributions
Since the beginning of the journey, this time of year usually has sense of waiting for events to unfold - in particular, finding out the level of half-year distributions to June.
These represent the bulk of distributions, usually averaging 60-65 per cent of total distributions received. They are an important and tangible signpost of progress on the financial independence journey.
This is no simple task, as distributions have varied in size considerably.
A part of this variation has been the important role of sometimes large and lumpy capital distributions - which have made up between 30 to 48 per cent of total distributions in recent years, and an average of around 15 per cent across the last two decades.
I have experimented with many different approaches, most of which have relied on averaging over multi-year periods to even out the 'peaks and troughs' of how market movements may have affected distributions. The main approaches have been:
Each of these have their particular simplifications, advantages and drawbacks.
Developing new navigation tools
Over the past month I have also developed more fully an alternate 'model' for estimating returns.
This simply derives a median value across a set of historical 'cents per unit' distribution data for June and December payouts for the Vanguard funds and exchange traded funds. These make up over 96 per cent of income producing portfolio assets.
In other words, this model essentially assumes that each Vanguard fund and ETF owned pays out the 'average' level of distributions this half-year, with the average being based on distribution records that typically go back between 5 to 10 years.
Mapping the distribution estimates
The chart below sets out the estimate produced by each approach for the June distributions that are to come.
[Chart]
Some observations on these findings can be made.
The lowest estimate is the 'adjusted GFC income' observation, which essentially assumes that the income for this period is as low as experienced by the equity and bond portfolio during the Global Financial Crisis. Just due to timing differences of the period observed, this seems to be a 'worst case' lower bound estimate, which I do not currently place significant weight on.
Similarly, at the highest end, the 'average distribution rate' approach simply assumes June distributions deliver a distribution equal to the median that the entire portfolio has delivered since 1999. With higher interest rates, and larger fixed income holdings across much of that time, this seems an objectively unlikely outcome.
Similarly, the delivery of exactly the income suggested by long-term averages measured across decades and even centuries would be a matter of chance, rather than the basis for rational expectations.
Central estimates of the line of position
This leaves the estimates towards the centre of the chart - estimates of between around $28 000 to $43 000 as representing the more likely range.
I attach less weight to the historical three-year average due to the high contribution of distributed capital gains over that period of growth, where at least across equities some capital losses are likely to be in greater presence.
My preferred central estimate is the model estimate (green) , as it is based in historical data directly from the investment vehicles rather than my own evolving portfolio. The data it is based on in some cases goes back to the Global Financial Crisis. This estimate is also quite close to the raw average of all the alternative approaches (red). It sits a little above the 'adjusted income' measure.
None of these estimates, it should be noted, contain any explicit adjustment for the earnings and dividend reductions or delays arising from COVID-19. They may, therefore represent a modest over-estimate for likely June distributions, to the extent that these effects are more negative than those experienced on average across the period of the underlying data.
These are difficult to estimate, but dividend reductions could easily be in the order of 20-30 per cent, plausibly lowering distributions to the $23 000 to $27 000 range. The recently announced forecast dividend for the Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) is, for example, the lowest in four years.
As seen from chart above, there is a wide band of estimates, which grow wider still should capital gains be unexpectedly distributed from the Vanguard retail funds. These have represented a source of considerable volatility. Given this, it may seem fruitless to seek to estimate these forthcoming distributions, compared to just waiting for them to arrive.
Yet this exercise helps by setting out reasoning and positions, before hindsight bias urgently arrives to inform me that I knew the right answer all along. It also potentially helps clearly 'reject' some models over time, if the predictions they make prove to be systematically incorrect.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 81.0% 109.4%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 98.8% 133.5%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 79.2% 106.9%
Summary
The current coronavirus conditions are affecting all aspects of the journey to financial independence - changing spending habits, leading to volatility in equity markets and sequencing risks, and perhaps dramatically altering the expected pattern of portfolio distributions.
Although history can provide some guidance, there is simply no definitive way to know whether any or all of these changes will be fundamental and permanent alterations, or simply data points on a post-natural disaster path to a different post-pandemic set of conditions. There is the temptation to fit past crises imperfectly into the modern picture, as this Of Dollars and Data post illustrates well.
Taking a longer 100 year view, this piece 'The Allegory of the Hawk and Serpent' is a reminder that our entire set of received truths about constructing a portfolio to survive for the long-term can be a product of a sample size of one - actual past history - and subject to recency bias.
This month has felt like one of quiet routines, muted events compared to the past few months, and waiting to understand more fully the shape of the new. Nonetheless, with each new investment, or week of lower expenditure than implied in my FI target, the nature of the journey is incrementally changing - beneath the surface.
Small milestones are being passed - such as over 40 per cent of my equity holdings being outside of the the Vanguard retail funds. Or these these retail funds - which once formed over 95 per cent of the portfolio - now making up less than half.
With a significant part of the financial independence journey being about repeated small actions producing outsized results with time, the issue of maintaining good routines while exploring beneficial changes is real.
Adding to the complexity is that embarking on the financial journey itself is likely to change who one is. This idea, of the difficulty or impossibility of knowing the preferences of a future self, is explored in a fascinating way in this Econtalk podcast episode with a philosophical thought experiment about vampires. It poses the question: perhaps we can never know ourselves at the destination? And yet, who would rationally choose ruin over any change?
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
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SNAP Flies

For Trading October 21st
IBM & NFLX TANK, SNAP FLIES UP
An Unimpressive Outing for Indexes
Today’s market was another reversal of fortune after an up open and a high +379, we fell all the way back to close +113.37 (.40%), NASDAQ was +153 but finished +37.61 (.33%) and the rest followed the pattern with S&P 500 +16.20 (.47%), the Russell +4.08 (.25%) and the biggest gainer, DJ Transports +152.21 (1.3%). Internals were just okay with NYSE 2:1 up and NAZ just 6:5. Volume was average. The DJIA was 24 up, 6 lower, with the biggest changes from IBM -54 DP’s and TRV +40DP’s. Aside from IBM there were no other double-digit losers and all the rest of the double-digit gainers were up less than 20 points.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
Yesterday’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/UYkje0_lqQo
SECTORS: Earnings were the big mover today with the aforementioned IBM miss that took the stock down last night and into the open, but that was just a warmup. By the end of the day Big Blue was pounded for a low of 116.84 and a close not much higher at $117.45 -8.07 (8.07%). Netflix (NFLX) also missed and after closing $525.42 -5.30, it plummeted to $486 and the last is $493.90 -37.03 (6.98%). The decline from the new all-time high of $572.49 just last Wednesday is just under 14%.
The big winner so far is SNAP with a surprise beat that sent the stock to a new all-time high at $35.57 and a last of $34.89 +6.23 or 21.67% on the day. And the HOMERUN OF THE DAY goes to Astrotech, ASTC, who signed an agreement to produce a “breath” test for Covid-19. The stock has been reversed twice in the past 12 years both 1:10 and 1:5 giving it an adjusted high of $800 and a close today of $1.69, but after the announcement of the joint venture with Cleveland Clinic the stock has been on a tear to a high of $6.90 and the last of $6.72 +5.01 (300%). Tomorrow ought to be interesting once the RH traders get a hold of it!
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL +.49, RCL +2.17, NCHL +.64, AAL +.32, DAL +.58, LUV +.36, UAL +.75, HA +.34, ALK +.42, and XTN $61.67 +1.12 (1,86%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN -.45, FLO -.57, CPB -.93, CAG -.35, MDLZ -.19, KHC +.22, CALM -.03, JJSF +.94, SAFM -3.35. HRL -.26, SJM - 1.08, PPC +.06, KR -.48, and a new addition ACI +.86, and PBJ $34.18 -.04 (.11%).
BIOPHARMA was MIXED with BIIB +2.23, ABBV +.19, REGN -6.51, ISRG +2.14, GILD +.15, MYL -.11, TEVA -.11, VRTX -5.50, BHC -.19, INCY +2.10, ICPT -1.57, LABU -2.47, and IBB $136.53 -.90 (.65%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.21, CGC -.66, CRON -.06, GWPH +.28, ACB -.21, CURLF +.50, KERN -.22 and MJ $11.36 -.16 (1.39%).
DEFENSE was LOWER with LMT -10.71, GD -.22, TXT -.51, NOC -2.28, BWXT -.77, TDY +5.16, RTX -.22, and ITA $163.00 -1.36 (.83%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M +.24, JWN +.17, KSS +1.28, DDS -2.33, WMT +.95, TGT +.82, TJX -.20, RL -.85, and a new addition GPS -.07, and XRT $53.79 +.11 (.20%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +40.05, AMZN +10.79, AAPL +1.89, FB +14.35, NFLX (see above) -35.62, NVDA +6.39, TSLA -5.98, BABA +5.41, BIDU +.83, CMG +14.42, CRM +2.25, BA +.46, CAT +2.40, DIS +.77 and XLK $119.60 +.70 (.59%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +2.34, JPM +.57, BAC +.49, MS +.52, C +.74, PNC +2.07, AIG +.56, TRV +6.27, V +1.13, and XLF $24.96 +.35 (1.42%).
OIL, $41.70 +.64, Oil has been locked into the current range and tried to break in either direction without success. While I think it may resolve to the downside, I am not taking any new positions. The stocks were higher today and there has been a pickup in M&A activity in the group. XLE finished $29.90 +.35 (1.18%).
GOLD $1,915.40 +3.70opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end.
BITCOIN: closed $11,970 +215. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $13.30 +.47 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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FSLY ugh

For Trading October 15th
BANKS BEAT BUT FALTER
Today’s market was interesting…not good or bad, just interesting. It always concerns me when the earnings news is good and the market falls. UNH, BAC, and GS all reported, and the numbers were good, and all fell well off the highs, with UNH the only one to close up, and only pennies at that. After the hotter than expected PPI numbers came out, the open was slightly higher, but it didn’t last long. After the DJIA hit the high for the day +120, it turned down and by 11:00 it was down for the day. The DJIA finished -165.81 (.58%), NASDAQ -95.17 (.80%), S&P 500 -23.26 (.66%), the Russell -15.20 (.93%) and the DJ Transports the big winner at +105.67 (.90%). Internals were soft at 1.5:1 on NYSE and 1.9:1 on the NAZ. The DJIA was 10 up, 20 down, with UNH the biggest decliner paring 64 DP’s off the average. Tomorrow we have UAL, WBA, MS, and TSM reporting as well as the continuing and initial claims, Phili Fed, Empire State and Export / Import numbers for Sept. Lots of stuff to digest.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!!
Yesterday’s interview with Joe Moscato, CEO of GNBT is available today at https://youtu.be/rJBtqC75g3A It’s a great story and this stock (I believe) won’t stay at these levels once there is a wider understanding of what this company actually has going for it!!
Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/Z-R_NRe9TLM
SECTORS: There was good news for the banks, again, but by midday it just didn’t matter. Today’s losers were BAC, GS, and the biggest loser, UNH which was trading +2.50 premarket and never even made it to unchanged, finishing -9.57, which cost the DJIA 64DP’s. There was some good news for holders of Concho Resources. The talk is that they are a takeover candidate and after hitting $51.00 it closed on the lows, but still +4.79 (10.8%) on the day. FSLY holders weren’t quite so lucky. The stock which traded $10.63 in March has been a juggernaut, hitting $136.50 yesterday, reported after the close that their prior expectations of revenue “should not be relied upon.” It seems that geopolitical concerns had hampered their operation. The customer is the parent company of TIK TOK! While the numbers given (they report on 10/28) aren’t terrible, when your stock has risen the way this one has, it’s a problem. The last on it in late trading was $91.28 -37.55 (30%) after a low of $86.40. Even at this lower price, the stock is still up from the start of the year by 400%. Another favorite, DraftKings (DKNG) has not acted well since doing their offering last week priced about $4.00 under the market @ $52.00 and has not been able to climb back over that level. The stock closed $48.04 -3.14 today (6.14%). The continuing Covid-19 issues for major sports teams and cancelled and postponed may be weighing on the stock in the short term. After the close VRTX reported the end of their trial on a protein-deficiency treatment. The stock fell from its close of $371.46 -4.63 to trade $235.01 and closed $239 -37.09 (13.43%).
New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with +.64, HA +.03, ALK +.53, and XTN $61.57 +.52 (.85%).
FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN +.26, BGS -.24, FLO -.11, CPB -.15, CAG -.38, MDLZ -.38, CALM -.15, JJSF -.43, SAFM +.03, HRL -.41, SJM -1.12, PPC +.89, KR -1.10, and PBJ $34.56 -.28 (.78%).
BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -3.46, ABBV -.40, REGN -3.02, ISRG -4.27, GILD +.01, MYL -.28, TEVA -.08, VRTX -37.10, BHC -.04, INCY -3.36, ICPT -.80, LABU -4.26, and IBB $141.60 -2.74 (1.9%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.03, CGC -.42, CRON -.10, GWPH +.68, ACB -.23, CURLF -.18, KERN -.17, and MJ $11.49 -.13 (1.12%).
DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT +3.52, GD -.35, TXT unchanged, NOC +2.29, BWXT +.88, TDY +2.94, RTX +.47, and ITA $163.58 +.90 (.55%).
RETAIL: was MIXED with M -.02, JWN -.13, KSS +.04, DDS +.32, WMT -2.23, TGT -2.04, TJX +.03, RL +.72, UAA -.29, LULU -4.34, TPR +.08, CPRI +.01, and a new addition GPS +.27, and XRT $54.07 -.45 (.83%).
MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL -4.56, AMZN -91.63, AAPL -.29, FB -4.74, NFLX -15.09, NVDA -7.93, TSLA +13.70, BABA +9.33, BIDU +8.65, CMG -3.84, CRM -6.85, BA +1.36, CAT +1.49, DIS -2.36, and XLK $122.02 -.65 (.53%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES.
FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS +.42, JPM -.44, BAC -1.20, MS +.64, C -.64, PNC -2.61, AIG -.07, TRV -.86, V -1.82, and XLF $24.78 -.24 (.96%).
OIL, $41.04 +.84, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard Friday touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before mounting a rally back to close today just over $41, near recent highs. The stocks were MIXED with XLE $30.52 +.13 (.43%).
GOLD $1,907.30 +12.70, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end.
BITCOIN: closed $11410 -30. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $12.20 -.18 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
submitted by Dashover to OptionsOnly [link] [comments]

Some useful tips you may need for the next bull run

During the previous bull run, I’ve made some wrong decisions that have cost me a lot of money. With the halving just behind us, we may enter a new bull run.
Here are some tips for the next bull run. Feel free to add yours:
• ⁠never sell your whole stack
• ⁠never trade with your whole stack. not your keys not your crypto
• ⁠if you have life changing amounts, you are a gambler if you hodl everything for bigger life changing amounts (lots of people have been thinking "i should have, would have, could have" everyday for the last year+)
• ⁠scale out when the log chart goes parabolic, and your grandma and uber driver and katy perry are talking about bitcoins. the difference between short term gains & long term gains is more than losing 90% of your principle. markets don't care about your timetable
• ⁠take chunks of your profits out of crypto entirely & diversify, you can lockup a small percentage into defi and earn interest as a hedge to offset fomo
• ⁠pay your taxes (optional?) and/or save money for a rainy day in fiat
• ⁠set some low limit orders you don't think will hit on the way up and be patient
• ⁠set some high limit orders on the way down to catch any fat finger trades
• ⁠keep a few low orders on exchanges that still allow flash crashes and think of those as your reserves
• ⁠don't ever talk to people about your gains
• specify a strategy prior to the new bull run, including exit points and several levels at which you plan to sell parts of your stack
• help newbies who will be attracted by the new bull run and don’t shill your own shitcoins
submitted by XRBeast to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

08-19 18:15 - 'PSA: Watch out for girls from Tinder who like fashion, investing and other random things. HAPPENING TO ME TOO RIGHT NOW :(' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/IfUDontKnowNowUKnow9 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 29-39min

'''
This is my first time on reddit so bare with me. I saw this post " [PSA: Watch out for girls from Tinder who like fashion, hiking, investing and other random things.]1 " and thought I'd share what is currently happening to me.
The short: The website is Mareix I put $4K in an ICO called GEP ( Genesis Earnings Paction Chain). I have to wait until Oct 15 to withdraw due to a subscribe end countdown. They even have a Whitebook pdf attached to the page. It would of been $5K but I was able to get $1k back by telling them "If this is real then I should be able to get money out that I didn't invest yet".
Below is the LONG VERSION on how I got here.
I was visiting Las Vegas this past July 2020 and looking on Tinder to see whos around. I found this Chinese girl by "Alisa". We match but don't talk for a week.

[link]4
When I get back home to New York, we start sending messages. She is from Hong Kong. She says she used to know a beauty salon and started investing with the help from her Uncle.
"I have my own beauty salon and my own investment income".
"Before I was a beauty salon, I was a model". I let statements like this slide because I give foreigners the benefit of the doubt. Which in hindsight is dumb because they are expecting that from a dumb American like me.
She then tells me she has been to Saipan. Sends me videos of "her" flying a Cessna

[\"Alisa\" \"Flying\"]2
She tells me she is 30 years old and ends the conversation with a voice message saying "I'm going to go to bed, see you later".
The next day I embarrassingly send her selfies of me with my shirt off but covering my face. "Your figure is good. Do you exercise regularly? When I travel to the United States, you come to protect me"
I ask her to send me a picture. She responds "Dear, today my sister is going to have a baby, I will accompany her in the hospital". My first red flag. Who calls each other 'Dear'? I was once talking to a asian girl on google hangouts who turn out to be a Nigerian man.[The scam here was similar, they would build long term correspondence with you and then after a few month tell you they need money for hospital or emergency. But I saw through that one within a few days]. He called me dear a lot. So I started thinking, is this a scam? But what could I be scam for?
Next day:
Me - Congrats on you becoming an Auntie.
Alisa - Hahaha. Today a little prince came to our big family, the sister and child are safe.
Me - Do you want to have children?
Alisa - Yeah I'm an aunt now. I like children very much. In the future I want a naughty boy and a quirky daughter. [Again, who talks like this? But I stupidly want to believe.]
Alisa - I just finished taking a shower, now I turn on my computer and I am ready to view my latest investment trend chart. [and thats how it started]

I want to share more but its a lot. If this gets a lot of interest, I'll continue with my naive story. [Which is currently still happening.] But for now I'll add all the photos of "her". Let me know if she looks like anyone.

[link]5
[I know for certain this is not her, but it is Saipan.]3
[link]6
[link]7

[link]8
[link]9
[link]10
[link]11
[link]12
[link]13
'''
PSA: Watch out for girls from Tinder who like fashion, investing and other random things. HAPPENING TO ME TOO RIGHT NOW :(
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: IfUDontKnowNowUKnow9
1: old***ddit.com/Bitcoin/comment***u1*4c/*s*_wa*ch_o**_for_gi**s_f*om_*i*d***w*o*like/ 2: *ed*it.com/*in*/i*s**s/vid*o/bih0*sbcvzh5*/pla**r 3: re**i*.com/li*k*i*sb6s*video/zfuf*k*uvzh51/p**ye* 4: *rev**w.redd.it/*9*59*ihvzh*1.jpg?***th=828*a**;**r*at*pjpg&am**aut*=web*&**p;*=918*b82b54bf2*f*d3fde4c199**2d*3cb95d2aa 5: re****.com/lin*/icsb6s/video*tp*9q4*uvz*51/p*a*e* 6: red*it.com/li**/ic*b6s/vi*****uxr*zduv*h51/*layer 7: re*dit*co*/link*i*sb6s*video/g*mw6*l*v*h*1/p*ayer 8: pr*v**w.*edd.*t/uyaeri7qvz**1*j*g?width=*080&a*p;f*rmat=pjpg*amp**ut***eb*&a*p;s***4ce95f*83*f6*5*dac*9f03*bb1ad6b0*58f20 9: prev*e*.re**.*t*8****f7qvzh51*jp*?wid*h=1176&a*p;fo*mat=pjpg&am*;aut*=web*&*mp;s=09**8*4341**02*7da5c8e1f8c5**4b8*40e**97 10: previ*w.redd**t/n*kk7d7q**h51*jpg*w*d*h=1080&a*p;forma*=*j***a*p;*uto=*ebp**mp;s=f11**66*52df63*65f1f**7aa2c*dbea240*5e*a 11: p*e**ew.red**it/*uc*pg7qvzh5**jpg?w*dth=108*&am*;format=*jp*&**p;aut*=webp&a*p;*=1**37*61*bc**48800ff48a*d1db**efb*f*e3e3 12: previ**.redd**t*9smhfo**v*h51.jp*?w**th=1080&a**;f****t=pj*g&am*;a*to=web**amp;s=4d1*15a37afdcf0*d1d*9*50e*7a2c9*20*aa7*6 13: p*evie***e*d.it/c6*s*p7q*z**1.jpg?*idth=10*0&am*;f*rma*=pjp*&a*p;auto=we*p&*=c4194*d*d6b*c8**eb7*fd5*8**8*4bc6961231*
Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

New Lands, or New Eyes? | Monthly FIRE Portfolio Update - April 2020

The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes.
- Marcel Proust, Remembrance of Things Past
This is my forty-first portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goal.
Portfolio goal
My objective is to reach a portfolio of $2 180 000 by 1 July 2021. This would produce a real annual income of about $87 000 (in 2020 dollars).
This portfolio objective is based on an expected average real return of 3.99 per cent, or a nominal return of 6.49 per cent.
Portfolio summary
Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $697 582
Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $40 709
Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $76 583
Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 563
Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $174 864
Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $31 505
Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $215 805
Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 625
Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $7 323
NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $5 904
Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $119 458
Secured physical gold – $19 269
Ratesetter (P2P lending) – $12 234
Bitcoin – $158 360
Raiz app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 144
Spaceship Voyager app (Index portfolio) – $2 435
BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 471
Total portfolio value: $1 694 834 (+$127 888 or 8.2%)
Asset allocation
Australian shares – 40.9% (4.1% under)
Global shares – 21.7%
Emerging markets shares – 2.2%
International small companies – 3.0%
Total international shares – 26.9% (3.1% under)
Total shares – 67.8% (7.2% under)
Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over)
Australian bonds – 4.5%
International bonds – 9.9%
Total bonds – 14.4% (0.6% under)
Gold – 8.2%
Bitcoin – 9.3%
Gold and alternatives – 17.5% (7.5% over)
Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio.
Comments
This month featured a sharp recovery in the overall portfolio, reducing the size of the large losses experienced over the previous month.
The portfolio increased by over $127 000, representing a growth of 8.2 per cent, which is the largest month-on-month growth on record. This now puts the portfolio value significantly above the levels of a year ago.
[Chart]
The expansion in the value of the portfolio has occurred due to an increase in Australian and global equities markets, as well as substantial increases the price of Bitcoin. This is effectively the mirror image of the simultaneous negative movements last month.
From a nadir of initial pessimism in late March, markets have generally moved upwards as debate continues about the path of a likely economic recession and recovery from Coronavirus impacts over the coming year.
[Chart]
First quarter distributions from the Australian and Global Shares ETFs (A200, VAS and VGS) were received this month. These were too early to fully reflect the sharp economic activity impacts of the Coronavirus and lockdown period on company earnings.
Despite this, they were significantly down on a cents per unit basis on the equivalent distributions last year. Totalling around $2700, these distributions formed part of new contributions to Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS).
The rapid falls in equity have many participants looking forward to a return to normalcy, or at least more open to the pleasing ideas that nerves have been held in a market fall comparable to 2000 or 2008-09, and that markets now represent clear value. As discussed last month, there should be caution and some humility about these questions, if some historical perspective is taken. As an example, the largest global equity market in the world - the United States - remains at valuation levels well above those experienced in previous market lows.
Portfolio alternatives - tracking changes under the surface
A striking feature of the past year or so has been the expansion of the non-traditional or 'alternatives' components of gold and Bitcoin as a proportion of the overall portfolio. Currently, when combined these alternative assets form a greater part of the portfolio than at any point over the past two years.
The chart below shows that since January 2019 the gold and Bitcoin component of the portfolio has lifted from around its long term target level of 10 per cent, to now make up over 17 per cent of the portfolio. In the space of the last four months alone, it has lifted from 13 per cent.
[Chart]
With no purchases of either gold or Bitcoin over the period, the growth in the chart is the result of two reinforcing factors:
A substantial fall in the value of the equity portfolio - reaching nearly $200 000 since the recent February market peak has naturally and mathematically led to a commensurate increase the proportion of other assets.
Increases in the value of gold and Bitcoin - have also played a role with a total appreciation of around $150 000 across the two assets over the past 16 months.
In fact, the value gold holdings alone have increased by over 40 per cent since January last year. Further appreciation of either gold or Bitcoin prices, particularly if any further falls in equity markets occur, could easily place the portfolio in the same position as experienced in January 2018.
At that time these alternative assets made up 1 in every 5 dollars of the portfolio, an unusual, and in that case temporary phenomenon. This represents a different portfolio and risk exposure than that envisaged in my portfolio investment plan.
Yet, equally it is critical to recall what the circumstances would likely be for this to arise. Simultaneously high gold and Bitcoin prices are more likely to occur in a situation of severe capital market dislocation, or falling confidence. On the other hand, should confidence and equity market growth be restored, both of these portfolio components could fall back to lower levels.
It is difficult to tell which state of the world will eventuate, a key reason for diversification across asset types. United States government debt is already at record levels - equivalent in real terms to levels last seen when it emerged out of the Second World War - despite no similar national effort having being undertaken.
Future inflation can potentially partly manage this burden, however, the last sustained episode of persistently high inflation rates during the decade of the 1970s spelt negative real returns. Where investors expect future inflation or financially 'repressive' policies of inflation exceeding interest rates, the economic growth required to 'grow out' of debt can be affected.
At this point, my inclination is to address this circumstance gradually through time by re-balancing of distributions and new contributions, rather than to realise capital gains by selling assets at one, or several, points in time.
Chasing down the lines - falling average spending in lockdown
Since the implementation of lockdown restrictions, average credit card expenditure has fallen by nearly 30 per cent. This has taken credit card expenditure to lower than any similar period in the past six years.
Partly as a result of this - as the chart below shows - a new development is occurring. The previously fairly steady card expenses line (red) is now starting to bend down towards, or 'chase', the rolling average distributions line (in blue).
[Chart]
The declining distributions line is a result of some previous high distributions gradually falling outside of the data 'window' for the rolling three-year comparison of distributions and expenditure.
This intriguing picture will probably change before a cross-over occurs, as lockdown restrictions ease, and as the data feeding into the three year average slowly changes over time.
Progress
Progress against the objective, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below.
Measure Portfolio All Assets
Portfolio objective – $2 180 000 (or $87 000 pa) 77.7% 104.6%
Credit card purchases – $71 000 pa 94.8% 127.6%
Total expenses – $89 000 pa 76.0% 102.3%
Summary
Last month market volatility theoretically took progress down to below most of my financial independence benchmarks on an 'All Assets' (i.e. portfolio and superannuation assets) basis. This position has reversed this month. As markets have recovered and with additional spare time in the lockdown period, I have continued to seek out and think about different perspectives on the history and future of markets.
Yet it must be recognised that there is a natural limit to the utility of these ponderings. The shape of the future is always uncertain, and in this world, confident comparisons and analogies with past events can be perilous. Comparisons with past periods of financial market crises miss the centrality of government action as a causal influence on the path of virus affected economies and markets.
A virus and recovery is not the same as a global financial crisis originating in housing finance markets addressed through monetary and fiscal stimulus. Most developed country governments have quickly applied the same, if not larger versions of responses as applied in the global financial crisis, a distinguishing step that also makes analogies with the great depression era problematic.
Similarly, a pandemic is not hitting and interacting with the shattered economic and health systems of the 1918-19 Spanish flu. Overlaying all of this is the imperfect and partially disconnected relationship between the economy today, and equity markets that discount and focus on the future.
This makes all history's lessons more than usually caveated and conditional. One avenue for managing through these times is to focus on what does not change - the psychological difficulty of accepting alterations in financial circumstances and the capacity of markets movements to cruelly surprise us in both timing and direction.
One of the best texts to read to get a sense of both of these in such times is Benjamin Roth's A Great Depression Diary. This tells of the day-by-day changes observed in everyday urban life and investment markets, from the point of view of an American small retail investor living through the times.
This month also saw the exciting news that Pat the Shuffler and Strong Money Australia are combining efforts to produce a new podcast. Speaking of which, Big ERN's reflections on the current implications of sharemarket market movements for seekers of financial independence have been filled with insight and wisdom.
This interesting piece (video) - the latest in a 'virus' market series - from New York University's Professor of Finance Aswath Damodaran on asset performances through the past few months - is a more technical and detailed discussion of how markets have re-priced businesses and profits. Finally, the recently released Hmmminar interview series provides a more heterodox set of speakers and ideas on current markets, presented by Grant Williams.
Unlike predicting the future, seeking out different perspectives on it is perhaps the easiest it has ever been in history. While it is not always possible to change the course taken, it is possible to look at the same horizon with new eyes.
The post, links and full charts can be seen here.
submitted by thefiexpl to fiaustralia [link] [comments]

Adult entertainment trough Devil´s Dragon Token

Adult entertainment trough Devil´s Dragon Token
Hello everyone, In this post I would like to talk about some of the DDGN Token features and company achievements.
https://preview.redd.it/of2xxl7gxtg51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2ed2316a60511260102feb5f1a77750ff0c2c58
The company aims to revolutionize adult entertainment trough blockchain innovations presenting the opportunity to the user to be an active participant in this field using the Ecosystem. DEVIL´S DRAGON TOKEN is fully decentralized autonomous and encrypted. It offers the option to share, publish, and earn through selling, trading, exchanging, and utilizing the features of its ecosystem. A unique multi-use cryptocurrency with many active sites bringing new business models to life and disrupting the high set price of contemporary adult entertainment. DEVIL´S DRAGON TOKEN is a Ethereum based token that will be able to be used with any other Blockchain project or technology that is already operating.
DDGN is used on active sites to access related and wanted content. The full list can be found on the website by clicking on “Sites” or scrolling down. https://www.devilsdragon.com
TOKENOMICS. (ICO Information / Token Economy) Token name: DRAGON DEVIL Token Symbol: DDGN - Supply Token: 180 000 000 NOT MINTABLE Decimal: 18 - Token type: ERC20 CURRENT STATUS: Under Crowdsale with 5% PRE-SALE Token value 2000 DDGN = 1 ETH for PRIVATE - ONLY PRESALE In ITO sale the rate will be 1000 DDGN = 1 ETH START PRESALE: 2020-08-15 00:01 END: 2020-08-31 23:59
!Please note that only Ethereum is accepted. This will ensure transparency and prevent any fraudulent activities that may impact the value of the coins negatively!
Token Allocation: • Presale (PRIVATE SALE) 5% (All unsold tokens will be burned) • Crowdsale 55% (All unsold tokens will be burned) • Team & Partners 9% (Only used for new partnerships and strengthen the Team) • Reserved 6% (For Exchange and Legal Purposes) • Ecosystem 18% (Only used on our platforms like us write in our White Paper) • Development Team 2% (Used only for development and purposes none of these tokens will be sold) • Founder 4% (Used for administrative, regulatory and internal ecosystem needs only) • Ext Developer 1% (Non-Team Developers to be used for Testing and other Development Purposes on all Ecosystems and their features).
At this point DDGN is already listed on MyCryptoCheckout.
https://preview.redd.it/zgif2u4jxtg51.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ac7e157e30e1b15b5a7201370d3437deced898c
The ways to earn will be further possible by rewards and revenue sharing, live broadcasts, moderating content for the approval or disapproval of forum posts, mining for content, and arranging unused hard disk space. These are set just at the start point. The potential of the new features immense.
Presented Roadmap looks great: • Early 2018. KISSES TECH Established as a Czech Company (February) • Between the beginning of 2018 and the end of 2019. Fixed Adult Entertainment Coin + Many other projects related to Adult Entertainment and Blockchain to evolve and gather together: DDGN • Early 2020 Launch of the DDGN Project • Mid 2020 Launch of ETHpimp Q3 2020 ITO DDGN • Late 2020 Alpha version of the DDGN Dedicated Video Platform with a Decentralized Prize Service for Display and Manufacturing works with DDGN. On this platform the goal is to use a few supporting protocols such as ERC721 to make the videos like unique fine art creations. Luring a new business model which is fairer and more transparent. More Active Sites and More Partners for Ecosystems Alpha Version and Initial Registration First Delivery of Crowd Content Funding Network with Prizes & Decentralized Direct Revenue Sharing on the Stock exchange list
• Early 2021 DDGN Platform Beta Version Dedicated Videos that Live Immediately with Real Rewards and Share Earnings for Views & Creations CDCFN.COM Fully Active with the Distribution of Live Prizes and Adding New Sites to the Ecosystem makes DDGN more rare, enjoyable, and valuable to everyone involved.
Also surfing the blog (https://www.devilsdragon.com/blog) I found very interesting facts about CDCFN (Content Delivery Crowd Funding Network): www.cdcfn.com
A forum like website on which people share their original content and earn rewards in DDGN (Devil´s Dragon) Earned DDGN, as mentioned before will be available for exchanging to Bitcoin, Ethereum or other currency. The platform has a members shop, too, where members can earn and spend their earned tokens (DDGN) they gained from the site. Members Shop is integrated to work along side loads of other applications & plugins. Below is presented DDGN Tokens Earning System
  1. Forums - will allow member to earn tokens for starting topics, replying to other topics or to their own one.
  2. Downloads – Earning by uploading files on the platform, reviewing, commenting. Also receiving tokens for each download of their uploaded file.
  3. Calendar – Earning by submitting events, reviewing and commenting on the events.
  4. Gallery - Allowing members to earn for uploading images, reviewing and commenting on images.
  5. Commerce – Earning for a review on a product
  6. Reactions - Allowing members to earn DDGN Tokens for receiving reactions from their content.
  7. Clubs - Awarding users for joining a club and creating topics, replying and uploading files in clubs.
  8. Media Uploader - Awarding DDGN Tokens to users for uploading documents, images, audio and video files.
  9. Bonus DDGN Tokens – Awarding users on a daily, weekly and monthly basis. The user will have to log in at least on time in that period.
  10. Award DDGN Tokens - Awarding DDGN to your selected members or user groups via the ACP. On the user profile a section will be possible to add showing the amount of DDGN and a link to donate. The platform will have integrated Warning System which penalizes members if they receive a warning by removing DDGN tokens and setting different amounts of DDGN for different warn reasons. Members Shop Items – allowing members to spend their tokens Each item can be created unlimited times and admins can select different prices and permissions Creating categories to place the items in Setting moderator permissions to allow certain members to buy items for free All items use their own code Each item can have its own permission settings to select what usergroups can view it, buy it or send it Members can sell back their unwanted items at a cost of a certain % of the items price admins will set in the ACP After a user stores an item it will store the rewards for that purchase, so say they store multiple items, then at a later time admins change the rewards for that item in the ACP, they will still receive the rewards set when they purchased the item The list of default items: • Opening a random post count mystery box • Opening a random reputation DDGN Tokens mystery box • Changing username • Changing member title • Adding or editing signature • Uploading an avatar • Opening a mystery DDGN Tokens box • Opening a mystery items box • Resetting users´ warning DDGN Tokens • Allowing members to go browse anonymous until their session ends • Viewing a password from a password protected forum • Playing Rock, Paper, Scissors, Lizard, Spock • Allowing users to pin topics for a selected amount of days • Allowing members to feature files for a selected amount of days • Upgrading usergroup for x amount of days, months or years • Gambling to win a random trophy from Trophy’s & Medals • Buying a trophy from Trophy’s & Medals • Buying a medal from Trophy’s & Medals • Guessing the number • Embedding a video to profile • Uploading an image to use as a background on profile • Sending a personal sticky note • Adding / Editing social info • Custom Codes / Vouchers / Coupons • Creating custom codes for members to purchase including game codes / voucher codes and so on • Once a user redeems this item they will instantly receive a PM with the code attached
List of custom items: • Each Custom Item has to be manually awarded to the members, it could be for a coupon code, it could be anything • Choosing to receive a notification or email saying x member brought x custom item and admins need to award it • Showing a table in the ACP with all custom purchases users have brought showing if the item has been awarded or not • Adding a block to the ACP dashboard with the total amount of items admins need to award manually
Statistics Pages : • Shows a statistics page with a graph of the global DDGN Tokens gained on platform per day / week / month • Shows another statistics page with a graph of the amount of shop items purchased globally and the global DDGN Tokens spent per day / week / month • Shows a 3rd statistics page with a graph of the global DDGN Tokens won using items what you gamble your DDGN Tokens with
Members Bank: • Allowing members to store their DDGN Tokens in a bank • Charging members to deposit their DDGN Tokens • Awarding interest to members each month on their banked DDGN Tokens • Members can view all their transactions in a nice and tidy pop up table • Showing a table in the ACP with all the members who have created a bank account • Showing a 3D pie chart in the ACP with the DDGN Tokens per member group • Showing a 3D pie chart in the ACP with the current interest to pay per usergroup • Showing a graph of the banks transactions from your selected time periods
ACP: • Showing a table listing all Normal items purchased with all the information of the item purchase • Showing a table listing all custom items purchased with all the information of the item purchase • Showing a table listing all custom code items purchased with all the information of the purchase • Showing a table listing all the membergroup upgrade items purchased with all the information of the upgrade, expire date
• Choosing what user groups can gain DDGN Tokens with-in the forums / downloads / reaction settings • Generating unique purchases • Showing the shop items in a nice and clean node table giving you the ability to drag and drop them to different categories and sort them in your preferred positions • Selecting the amount of items to show per page in the shop and items page • Choosing the select to view the shop page / items page / rewards & logs page from either a table view or a nice new grid view • If admins allow users to send items to others admins can select a % of the value of the item to charge the users to send that item • Picking to show either a category in the sidebar of show the categories in a filter button on the table itself • Adding a block to the ACP dashboard showing the amount of custom items admins need to award to the users
With that said, I would like to hear your opinion about the project and the features that the team provides for us!
All this information and much more can be found on the below links.
Website: https://www.devilsdragon.com/
White paper: https://www.devilsdragon.com/whitepaper.pdf
Blog: https://www.devilsdragon.com/blog/
ANN: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5260322
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/devilsdragonofficial
Twitter: https://twitter.com/dragon_devils
Discord: https://discord.com/invite/xCwyntG
Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/useDevilsDragon
Telegram: https://t.me/devilsdragon_official
E-mail: [email protected]
Company behind of DDGN Token and development of the platform is KISSES TECHNOLOGY (Group) s.r.o
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Crypto Banking Wars: Will Coinbase or Binance Become The Bank of The Future?

Crypto Banking Wars: Will Coinbase or Binance Become The Bank of The Future?
Can the early success of major crypto exchanges propel them to winning the broader consumer finance market?
https://reddit.com/link/i48t4q/video/v4eo10gom7f51/player
This is the first part of Crypto Banking Wars — a new series that examines what crypto-native company is most likely to become the bank of the future. Who is best positioned to reach mainstream adoption in consumer finance?
While crypto allows the world to get rid of banks, a bank will still very much be necessary for this powerful technology to reach the masses. We believe a crypto-native company, like Genesis Block, will become the bank of the future.
In an earlier series, Crypto-Powered, we laid out arguments for why crypto-native companies have a huge edge in the market. When you consider both the broad spectrum of financial use-cases and the enormous value unlocked through these DeFi protocols, you can see just how big of an unfair advantage blockchain tech becomes for companies who truly understand and leverage it. Traditional banks and fintech unicorns simply won’t be able to keep up.
The power players of consumer finance in the 21st century will be crypto-native companies who build with blockchain technology at their core.
The crypto landscape is still nascent. We’re still very much in the fragmented, unbundled phase of the industry lifecycle. Beyond what Genesis Block is doing, there are signs of other companies slowly starting to bundle financial services into what could be an all-in-one bank replacement.
So the key question that this series hopes to answer:
Which crypto-native company will successfully become the bank of the future?
We obviously think Genesis Block is well-positioned to win. But we certainly aren’t the only game in town. In this series, we’ll be doing an analysis of who is most capable of thwarting our efforts. We’ll look at categories like crypto exchanges, crypto wallets, centralized lending & borrowing services, and crypto debit card companies. Each category will have its own dedicated post.
Today we’re analyzing big crypto exchanges. The two companies we’ll focus on today are Coinbase (biggest American exchange) and Binance (biggest global exchange). They are the top two exchanges in terms of Bitcoin trading volume. They are in pole position to winning this market — they have a huge existing userbase and strong financial resources.
Will Coinbase or Binance become the bank of the future? Can their early success propel them to winning the broader consumer finance market? Is their growth too far ahead for anyone else to catch up? Let’s dive in.
https://preview.redd.it/lau4hevpm7f51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c5de1ba497199f36aa194e5809bd86e5ab533d8

Binance

The most formidable exchange on the global stage is Binance (Crunchbase). All signs suggest they have significantly more users and a stronger balance sheet than Coinbase. No other exchange is executing as aggressively and relentlessly as Binance is. The cadence at which they are shipping and launching new products is nothing short of impressive. As Tushar Jain from Multicoin argues, Binance is Blitzscaling.
Here are some of the products that they’ve launched in the last 18 months. Only a few are announced but still pre-launch.
Binance is well-positioned to become the crypto-powered, all-in-one, bundled solution for financial services. They already have so many of the pieces. But the key question is:
Can they create a cohesive & united product experience?

Binance Weaknesses

Binance is strong, but they do have a few major weaknesses that could slow them down.
  1. Traders & Speculators Binance is currently very geared for speculators, traders, and financial professionals. Their bread-and-butter is trading (spot, margin, options, futures). Their UI is littered with depth charts, order books, candlesticks, and other financial concepts that are beyond the reach of most normal consumers. Their product today is not at all tailored for the broader consumer market. Given Binance’s popularity and strength among the pro audience, it’s unlikely that they will dumb down or simplify their product any time soon. That would jeopardize their core business. Binance will likely need an entirely new product/brand to go beyond the pro user crowd. That will take time (or an acquisition). So the question remains, is Binance even interested in the broader consumer market? Or will they continue to focus on their core product, the one-stop-shop for pro crypto traders?
  2. Controversies & Hot Water Binance has had a number of controversies. No one seems to know where they are based — so what regulatory agencies can hold them accountable? Last year, some sensitive, private user data got leaked. When they announced their debit card program, they had to remove mentions of Visa quickly after. And though the “police raid” story proved to be untrue, there are still a lot of questions about what happened with their Shanghai office shut down (where there is smoke, there is fire). If any company has had a “move fast and break things” attitude, it is Binance. That attitude has served them well so far but as they try to do business in more regulated countries like America, this will make their road much more difficult — especially in the consumer market where trust takes a long time to earn, but can be destroyed in an instant. This is perhaps why the Binance US product is an empty shell when compared to their main global product.
  3. Disjointed Product Experience Because Binance has so many different teams launching so many different services, their core product is increasingly feeling disjointed and disconnected. Many of the new features are sloppily integrated with each other. There’s no cohesive product experience. This is one of the downsides of executing and shipping at their relentless pace. For example, users don’t have a single wallet that shows their balances. Depending on if the user wants to do spot trading, margin, futures, or savings… the user needs to constantly be transferring their assets from one wallet to another. It’s not a unified, frictionless, simple user experience. This is one major downside of the “move fast and break things” approach.
  4. BNB token Binance raised $15M in a 2017 ICO by selling their $BNB token. The current market cap of $BNB is worth more than $2.6B. Financially this token has served them well. However, given how BNB works (for example, their token burn), there are a lot of open questions as to how BNB will be treated with US security laws. Their Binance US product so far is treading very lightly with its use of BNB. Their token could become a liability for Binance as it enters more regulated markets. Whether the crypto community likes it or not, until regulators get caught up and understand the power of decentralized technology, tokens will still be a regulatory burden — especially for anything that touches consumers.
  5. Binance Chain & Smart Contract Platform Binance is launching its own smart contract platform soon. Based on compatibility choices, they have their sights aimed at the Ethereum developer community. It’s unclear how easy it’ll be to convince developers to move to Binance chain. Most of the current developer energy and momentum around smart contracts is with Ethereum. Because Binance now has their own horse in the race, it’s unlikely they will ever decide to leverage Ethereum’s DeFi protocols. This could likely be a major strategic mistake — and hubris that goes a step too far. Binance will be pushing and promoting protocols on their own platform. The major risk of being all-in on their own platform is that they miss having a seat on the Ethereum rocket ship — specifically the growth of DeFi use-cases and the enormous value that can be unlocked. Integrating with Ethereum’s protocols would be either admitting defeat of their own platform or competing directly against themselves.

Binance Wrap Up

I don’t believe Binance is likely to succeed with a homegrown product aimed at the consumer finance market. Their current product — which is focused heavily on professional traders and speculators — is unlikely to become the bank of the future. If they wanted to enter the broader consumer market, I believe it’s much more likely that they will acquire a company that is getting early traction. They are not afraid to make acquisitions (Trust, JEX, WazirX, DappReview, BxB, CoinMarketCap, Swipe).
However, never count CZ out. He is a hustler. Binance is executing so aggressively and relentlessly that they will always be on the shortlist of major contenders.
https://preview.redd.it/mxmlg1zqm7f51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d900dd5ff7f3b00df5fe5a48305d57ebeffaa9a

Coinbase

The crypto-native company that I believe is more likely to become the bank of the future is Coinbase (crunchbase). Their dominance in America could serve as a springboard to winning the West (Binance has a stronger foothold in Asia). Coinbase has more than 30M users. Their exchange business is a money-printing machine. They have a solid reputation as it relates to compliance and working with regulators. Their CEO is a longtime member of the crypto community. They are rumored to be going public soon.

Coinbase Strengths

Let’s look at what makes them strong and a likely contender for winning the broader consumer finance market.
  1. Different Audience, Different Experience Coinbase has been smart to create a unique product experience for each audience — the pro speculator crowd and the common retail user. Their simple consumer version is at Coinbase.com. That’s the default. Their product for the more sophisticated traders and speculators is at Coinbase Pro (formerly GDAX). Unlike Binance, Coinbase can slowly build out the bank of the future for the broad consumer market while still having a home for their hardcore crypto traders. They aren’t afraid to have different experiences for different audiences.
  2. Brand & Design Coinbase has a strong product design team. Their brand is capable of going beyond the male-dominated crypto audience. Their product is clean and simple — much more consumer-friendly than Binance. It’s clear they spend a lot of time thinking about their user experience. Interacting directly with crypto can sometimes be rough and raw (especially for n00bs). When I was at Mainframe we hosted a panel about Crypto UX challenges at the DevCon4 Dapp Awards. Connie Yang (Head of Design at Coinbase) was on the panel. She was impressive. Some of their design philosophies will bode well as they push to reach the broader consumer finance market.
  3. USDC Stablecoin Coinbase (along with Circle) launched USDC. We’ve shared some stats about its impressive growth when we discussed DeFi use-cases. USDC is quickly becoming integrated with most DeFi protocols. As a result, Coinbase is getting a front-row seat at some of the most exciting things happening in decentralized finance. As Coinbase builds its knowledge and networks around these protocols, it could put them in a favorable position to unlock incredible value for their users.
  4. Early Signs of Bundling Though Coinbase has nowhere near as many products & services as Binance, they are slowly starting to add more financial services that may appeal to the broader market. They are now letting depositors earn interest on USDC (also DAI & Tezos). In the UK they are piloting a debit card. Users can now invest in crypto with dollar-cost-averaging. It’s not much, but it’s a start. You can start to see hints of a more bundled solution around financial services.

Coinbase Weaknesses

Let’s now look at some things that could hold them back.
  1. Slow Cadence In the fast-paced world of crypto, and especially when compared to Binance, Coinbase does not ship very many new products very often. This is perhaps their greatest weakness. Smaller, more nimble startups may run circles around them. They were smart to launch Coinbase Ventures where tey invest in early-stage startups. They can now keep an ear to the ground on innovation. Perhaps their cadence is normal for a company of their size — but the Binance pace creates quite the contrast.
  2. Lack of Innovation When you consider the previous point (slow cadence), it’s unclear if Coinbase is capable of building and launching new products that are built internally. Most of their new products have come through acquisitions. Their Earn.com acquisition is what led to their Earn educational product. Their acquisition of Xapo helped bolster their institutional custody offering. They acqui-hired a team to help launch their staking infrastructure. Their acquisition of Cipher Browser became an important part of Coinbase Wallet. And recently, they acquired Tagomi — a crypto prime brokerage. Perhaps most of Coinbase’s team is just focused on improving their golden goose, their exchange business. It’s unclear. But the jury is still out on if they can successfully innovate internally and launch any homegrown products.
  3. Talent Exodus There have been numerous reports of executive turmoil at Coinbase. It raises a lot of questions about company culture and vision. Some of the executives who departed include COO Asiff Hirji, CTO Balaji Srinivasan, VP & GM Adam White, VP Eng Tim Wagner, VP Product Jeremy Henrickson, Sr Dir of Eng Namrata Ganatra, VP of Intl Biz Dan Romero, Dir of Inst Sales Christine Sandler, Head of Trading Hunter Merghart, Dir Data Science Soups Ranjan, Policy Lead Mike Lempres, Sr Compliance Vaishali Mehta. Many of these folks didn’t stay with Coinbase very long. We don’t know exactly why it’s happening —but when you consider a few of my first points (slow cadence, lack of innovation), you have to wonder if it’s all related.
  4. Institutional Focus As a company, we are a Coinbase client. We love their institutional offering. It’s clear they’ve been investing a lot in this area. A recent Coinbase blog post made it clear that this has been a focus: “Over the past 12 months, Coinbase has been laser-focused on building out the types of features and services that our institutional customers need.” Their Tagomi acquisition only re-enforced this focus. Perhaps this is why their consumer product has felt so neglected. They’ve been heavily investing in their institutional services since May 2018. For a company that’s getting very close to an IPO, it makes sense that they’d focus on areas that present strong revenue opportunities — as they do with institutional clients. Even for big companies like Coinbase, it’s hard to have a split focus. If they are “laser-focused” on the institutional audience, it’s unlikely they’ll be launching any major consumer products anytime soon.

Coinbase Wrap Up

At Genesis Block, we‘re proud to be working with Coinbase. They are a fantastic company. However, I don’t believe that they’ll succeed in building their own product for the broader consumer finance market. While they have incredible design, there are no signs that they are focused on or capable of internally building this type of product.
Similar to Binance, I think it’s far more likely that Coinbase acquires a promising young startup with strong growth.

Honorable Mentions

Other US-based exchanges worth mentioning are Kraken, Gemini, and Bittrex. So far we’ve seen very few signs that any of them will aggressively attack broader consumer finance. Most are going in the way of Binance — listing more assets and adding more pro tools like margin and futures trading. And many, like Coinbase, are trying to attract more institutional customers. For example, Gemini with their custody product.

Wrap Up

Coinbase and Binance have huge war chests and massive reach. For that alone, they should always be considered threats to Genesis Block. However, their products are very, very different than the product we’re building. And their approach is very different as well. They are trying to educate and onboard people into crypto. At Genesis Block, we believe the masses shouldn’t need to know or care about it. We did an entire series about this, Spreading Crypto.
Most everyone needs banking — whether it be to borrow, spend, invest, earn interest, etc. Not everyone needs a crypto exchange. For non-crypto consumers (the mass market), the differences between a bank and a crypto exchange are immense. Companies like Binance and Coinbase make a lot of money on their crypto exchange business. It would be really difficult, gutsy, and risky for any of them to completely change their narrative, messaging, and product to focus on the broader consumer market. I don’t believe they would ever risk biting the hand that feeds them.
In summary, as it relates to a digital bank aimed at the mass market, I believe both Coinbase and Binance are much more likely to acquire a startup in this space than they are to build it themselves. And I think they would want to keep the brand/product distinct and separate from their core crypto exchange business.
So back to the original question, is Coinbase and Binance a threat to Genesis Block? Not really. Not today. But they could be, and for that, we want to stay close to them.
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