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Effectiveness of fork dilution attacks (a cursory examination by 24hr volume)
Since someone brought up the argument against Bitcoin Cash that "Satoshi didn't envisage hundreds of Bitcoin forks", I felt compelled to look at the market data to get a feel for the economic significance of the other forks. Just looking at coinmarketcap.com 24 hour volume, searching for "Bitcoin" (I know this is very approximate and may include some false hits) - here is the data for those coins, sorted in descending order by share of volume. Coin name // 24-hr-volume-in-USD // Percentage-of-total-24-hr-volume-of-the-"Bitcoin"-set
Bitcoin (BTC) 4661600000 93.5253009553
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) 311500000 6.2495991178
Bitcoin Gold (BTG) 7484740 0.1501657287
Bitcoin Diamond (BCD) 1500950 0.0301134375
BitcoinX (BCX) 965907 0.0193789134
United Bitcoin (UBTC) 294569 0.0059099138
Bitcoin Private (BTCP) 269397 0.0054048901
Super Bitcoin (SBTC) 232091 0.0046564228
BitcoinDark (BTCD) 184683 0.00370528
Bitcoin Plus (XBC) 141815 0.0028452228
Bitcoin Green (BITG) 104252 0.0020915994
BitcoinZ (BTCZ) 31929 0.0006405889
Bitcoin Atom (BCA) 5071 0.0001017391
Bitcoin God (GOD) 2718 0.000054531
Bitcoin Scrypt (BTCS) 891 1.78760603979717E-005
Bitcoin Red (BTCRED) 567 1.13756747987092E-005
Bitcoin Fast (BCF) 71 1.42446721465319E-006
Bitcoin Planet (BTPL) 31 0.000000622
Bitcoin 21 (XBTC21) 10 2.0062918516242E-007
First Bitcoin (BIT) 8 1.60503348129936E-007
It's immediately apparent that BTC + BCH together make up more than 99,75% of the total volume, and while BTC had ~14 times the volume of BCH in the last 24hrs, BCH had ~41 times the volume of the next-biggest fork (BTG). My point? Despite still being valued in tens of dollars in some cases, the other forks together have < 0,25% of the volume. They are effectively irrelevant unless you are a speculator. NOTE: I've only looked at the last 24hr data on CMC, with a very loose query. Judging by this other post, there must be a lot of variance in at least BTC vs. BCH volume, with some days where BCH volume is significantly larger in proportion than the figure I got above.
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